Nigeria is making strong strides toward rejoining the JP Morgan Government Bond Index (GBI-EM), nearly a decade after it was dropped. The move signals renewed investor confidence in Africa’s largest economy, driven by a string of bold economic reforms.
Speaking at the Nigerian Investors’ Forum on the sidelines of the World Bank and IMF Spring Meetings in Washington, D.C., the Director-General of the Debt Management Office (DMO), Patience Oniha, confirmed that discussions with JP Morgan were in advanced stages. She attributed the renewed momentum to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s sweeping monetary reforms, especially in the foreign exchange (FX) market.
“We believe we are now eligible,” Oniha said. “With all the reforms that have taken place, particularly around FX, we have started engaging JP Morgan again to get back into the index.”
Nigeria was first included in JP Morgan’s Government Bond Index-Emerging Markets (GBI-EM) in 2012, opening the door to billions of dollars in potential investment flows. However, it was removed in 2015 after the country introduced capital controls and currency restrictions to manage a steep decline in oil revenues. These measures created transparency concerns and hindered foreign investors’ ability to transact smoothly in the naira.
At the time, JP Morgan cited the lack of a fully functional two-way FX market as a key issue: “Foreign investors who track the GBI-EM series continue to face challenges and uncertainty while transacting in the naira due to limited transparency.”
Today, the narrative is shifting. Nigeria’s return to orthodox monetary policies since June 2023—including exchange rate liberalization, monetary tightening, and the removal of fuel subsidies—has earned praise from global rating agencies. Fitch Ratings recently upgraded Nigeria’s Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to ‘B’ from ‘B-’, citing improved policy coherence and reduced macroeconomic risks.
The upgrade also cascaded to the financial sector, with seven major Nigerian banks and two holding companies seeing their IDRs raised to ‘B’. These include Access Bank, Zenith Bank, GTBank, UBA, FirstBank, and Fidelity Bank, among others.
According to Fitch, “Nigeria’s sovereign credit profile has become less of a constraint on the issuers’ standalone creditworthiness.” The agency added that the government’s commitment to structural reforms has bolstered economic resilience amid persistent domestic and global challenges.
Rejoining the JP Morgan index would be a major win for Nigeria, signaling to global investors that the country is back on a stable and transparent financial track. It would also boost the liquidity and attractiveness of Nigerian bonds, potentially unlocking much-needed capital inflows.
